Casual Predictions

Sometimes we make predictions during converstation to look smart, or perhaps just to best the other guy out of our own stubborn pride. Some predictions are just sloppy guess-timations or said Tongue In Cheek.  That is human nature. 

But what about those preminissions that we hold on to because we are sure that one day the cosmos will smile down on us and friends will say “Hey Bud, you were right!”

One day, well 2 years ago to be exact i made a prediction that some countries would slowly phase out radio services that are not mainstream and/or are no longer cost effective to operate such as Shortwave, Longwave and dare i say Mediumwave.

I said that those stations would be shut down (decommissioned) due to budgets cuts and the ever so attractive DAB services that so many AM and LW stations have already succombed to.  My opinion about my own prediction was actually negative. 
It was one of those things said that we regret saying because the impact from saying such things was a bit hard to chew but never the less it was already said.

I had read scattered news blurbs about Canadian and European stations making the switch to FM from AM, LW and Shortwave but now after reading the following article it seems to confirm my assumptions that these once majestic services are quickly dieing in favor of cheaper broadcast services such as DAB.

http://radiomagonline.com/digital_radio/german_public_broadcasters_plan_lw_and_mw_shutdowns_0708/

While DAB has a much better sound and much less interference than the American counterpart IBLEC (IBOC) the power level is much smaller thus the audience will be directly inside of that stations conturs. Sure the power needed to operate a digital radio service is much much smaller than that of a 100 KW AM the audience must be within 20 miles or so of that digital signal. What about those living out in the middle of nowhere that relied on those services to bring them the latest news and great hits?

I can hear it now, “Mum, i’ll be taking the motorcar into the village to listen to a bit of radio” I just don’t see how that will be helpful to those on the outskirts of town, i suspect they will throw their radio into a closet or build their own station wether it is legal or not. 

Many shortwave stations are leaving the airwaves, WHRI – World Harvest Radio, RCI – Radio Canada International  just to name a couple. 

The next generation won’t even know what it was. Well come to think of it , neither does this generation for that matter. Long standing legacy stations are going dark as the cost of operating these iconic flamethrowers is just not profitable anymore.

Let’s just hope something good will come out of the unused spectrum in the future.